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Red194
5204119.7
613799.6
3620155.4
Blue310
4409144.3
288142.2
2337172.2
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2593200100200400500600700194310

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3620
#11
155.45.3
123.2128.6
Auto21.3
Teleop121.7
End12.2
blue by 16.8
172.211.9
115.5127.4
Auto27.5
Teleop126.4
End15.3
Second
5204
#18
119.79.5
100.0109.6
Auto15.7
Teleop89.8
End16.4
blue by 24.6
144.312.0
96.1108.1
Auto15.1
Teleop114.4
End16.0
Third
6137
#38
99.69.9
77.587.4
Auto14.9
Teleop75.9
End11.3
blue by 42.6
288
#23
142.27.3
99.3106.5
Auto17.4
Teleop113.8
End9.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
25%Auto Quest oddsMissed25%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
4%Face the Boss oddsMissed6%Face the Boss oddsMissed