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Red400
3244149.4
4664106.2
3299136.4
Blue151
4229107.7
284784.4
2508122.7
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions238269100200300400500400151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
149.45.2
109.3114.5
Auto23.2
Teleop107.8
End22.5
red by 26.8
2508
#24
122.76.5
110.4116.9
Auto14.6
Teleop94.3
End15.3
Second
3299
#21
136.41.2
110.0111.2
Auto17.0
Teleop101.6
End17.4
red by 28.7
4229
#40
107.74.4
100.4104.9
Auto15.3
Teleop83.7
End10.3
Third
4664
#42
106.21.3
91.990.6
Auto16.4
Teleop85.5
End6.2
red by 21.8
2847
#58
84.40.2
96.696.8
Auto10.9
Teleop72.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
16%Auto Quest oddsEarned16%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
7%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed