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Red280
103147.5
5404162.0
816124.9
Blue365
219141.9
1257154.2
5181136.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions336339250300400450280365

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
162.00.2
161.8162.0
Auto21.6
Teleop112.4
End29.7
red by 7.8
154.20.1
154.1154.1
Auto19.9
Teleop115.5
End17.0
Second
103
#8
147.50.5
147.0147.5
Auto17.6
Teleop118.2
End10.9
red by 5.6
219
#17
141.90.3
141.1141.4
Auto21.4
Teleop108.6
End14.4
Third
816
#26
124.90.2
124.7124.9
Auto17.6
Teleop83.2
End23.5
blue by 11.4
5181
#20
136.40.2
135.8136.0
Auto17.2
Teleop107.4
End10.3