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Red239
4698143.7
2848172.4
5584184.2
Blue418
5468150.6
4146162.4
2046212.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions327376100200300500600239418

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5584
#19
184.20.6
183.3183.9
Auto24.4
Teleop128.4
End31.3
blue by 28.1
2046
#41
212.30.8
212.1211.2
Auto22.6
Teleop166.9
End20.0
Second
2848
#35
172.40.3
180.0179.7
Auto23.6
Teleop129.5
End14.9
red by 10.0
4146
#12
162.40.5
163.1162.6
Auto18.3
Teleop121.8
End21.5
Third
4698
#42
143.70.0
144.5144.5
Auto16.0
Teleop107.3
End19.7
blue by 6.9
5468
#56
150.61.4
153.5152.2
Auto20.7
Teleop117.8
End9.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
94%Auto Quest oddsEarned95%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
36%Face the Boss oddsMissed21%Face the Boss oddsMissed