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Red64
258423.1
666812.0
69117.4
Blue68
510217.3
491321.8
401417.4
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions555302040801006468

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.10.8
25.225.9
Auto3.6
Teleop14.3
End5.2
red by 1.3
4913
#11
21.81.0
20.621.5
Auto5.0
Teleop11.8
End5.0
Second
691
#24
17.40.8
16.717.5
Auto4.8
Teleop8.5
End4.0
blue by 0.1
4014
#17
17.41.0
14.815.8
Auto3.7
Teleop11.3
End2.5
Third
6668
#36
12.00.8
10.711.4
Auto5.1
Teleop3.9
End2.9
blue by 5.3
5102
#23
17.31.0
15.216.2
Auto4.4
Teleop8.5
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Rocket
3%Rocket oddsMissed5%Rocket oddsMissed
HAB Docking
36%HAB Docking oddsEarned28%HAB Docking oddsMissed