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Red50
347316.8
249612.4
580222.4
Blue42
58357.6
59714.5
325015.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions373402060805042

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5802
#27
22.41.6
16.117.7
Auto3.9
Teleop14.3
End4.1
red by 6.7
3250
#28
15.61.1
15.316.5
Auto2.8
Teleop9.4
End3.4
Second
3473
#24
16.81.6
13.915.6
Auto5.3
Teleop8.5
End3.0
red by 2.4
597
#29
14.51.1
12.613.7
Auto4.1
Teleop7.9
End2.4
Third
2496
#40
12.41.6
5.36.9
Auto4.3
Teleop6.7
End1.4
red by 4.8
5835
#45
7.61.1
3.95.0
Auto1.4
Teleop4.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Rocket
2%Rocket oddsMissed2%Rocket oddsMissed
HAB Docking
18%HAB Docking oddsMissed13%HAB Docking oddsMissed