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Red78
157419.8
193725.8
459018.9
Blue78
333919.5
673820.3
555423.5
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions686740506080907878

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.80.1
25.725.8
Auto2.9
Teleop14.8
End8.1
red by 2.3
5554
#13
23.50.1
23.423.3
Auto3.4
Teleop15.6
End4.5
Second
1574
#10
19.80.1
19.719.8
Auto2.6
Teleop12.2
End5.1
blue by 0.5
20.30.1
20.220.1
Auto5.3
Teleop9.2
End5.7
Third
4590
#22
18.90.1
18.718.8
Auto4.8
Teleop7.9
End6.2
blue by 0.6
3339
#38
19.50.1
19.419.3
Auto2.8
Teleop9.4
End7.3