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Red160
359840.6
749877.8
648611.8
Blue107
501546.7
427039.5
325627.5
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14112550100200250160107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.80.9
76.076.9
Auto17.1
Teleop30.0
End30.7
red by 31.2
46.70.2
46.846.7
Auto14.1
Teleop12.9
End19.7
Second
40.60.9
38.839.7
Auto14.2
Teleop7.2
End19.2
red by 1.1
39.50.2
39.739.5
Auto8.8
Teleop10.5
End20.2
Third
6486
#31
11.80.9
9.910.8
Auto5.3
Teleop4.7
End1.8
blue by 15.8
3256
#25
27.50.2
27.727.5
Auto7.3
Teleop12.7
End7.5