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Red193
364755.5
29464.9
441928.6
Blue186
325548.4
294544.0
670444.6
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16113250100200250193186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
294
#1
64.91.6
62.163.7
Auto17.5
Teleop19.1
End28.3
red by 16.5
3255
#12
48.41.4
43.344.7
Auto14.0
Teleop14.8
End19.7
Second
55.51.6
52.754.3
Auto19.4
Teleop20.1
End15.9
red by 10.8
6704
#26
44.61.4
39.641.0
Auto14.1
Teleop2.4
End28.1
Third
4419
#41
28.61.6
25.827.4
Auto9.4
Teleop6.0
End13.2
blue by 15.4
44.01.4
39.040.3
Auto12.8
Teleop5.1
End26.2