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Red138
491073.5
110252.9
358116.2
Blue154
297452.3
177162.7
332915.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162142100200250138154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.50.1
73.673.5
Auto23.2
Teleop25.2
End25.1
red by 10.8
62.70.2
62.562.7
Auto19.2
Teleop17.8
End25.8
Second
52.90.1
53.052.9
Auto16.9
Teleop11.7
End24.3
red by 0.6
52.30.2
52.152.3
Auto21.4
Teleop21.7
End9.3
Third
3581
#30
16.20.1
16.416.2
Auto7.0
Teleop2.6
End6.7
red by 0.9
3329
#24
15.40.2
15.215.4
Auto6.1
Teleop2.6
End6.7