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Red167
402623.1
745137.4
67128.9
Blue115
590020.5
690523.6
788318.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7164050100150200167115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.40.3
35.235.4
Auto8.8
Teleop7.5
End21.1
red by 13.8
23.61.4
22.223.6
Auto3.4
Teleop2.4
End17.7
Second
4026
#13
23.10.3
20.921.1
Auto8.2
Teleop4.1
End10.7
red by 2.6
5900
#12
20.51.3
19.320.5
Auto8.4
Teleop2.6
End9.6
Third
6712
#16
8.90.3
6.76.9
Auto2.6
Teleop-1.0
End7.2
blue by 9.2
7883
#21
18.11.3
16.918.1
Auto4.1
Teleop2.9
End11.1