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Red126
808341.0
710435.6
75389.6
Blue153
174644.7
418937.8
565126.7
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86125050100150200250126153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.01.0
39.540.4
Auto12.1
Teleop5.9
End23.1
blue by 3.7
44.71.0
44.045.0
Auto10.8
Teleop17.5
End16.3
Second
35.61.0
34.135.1
Auto12.6
Teleop9.2
End13.8
blue by 2.2
37.81.0
37.238.2
Auto10.6
Teleop7.9
End19.3
Third
7538
#20
9.61.0
8.69.6
Auto2.9
Teleop1.5
End5.2
blue by 17.1
5651
#23
26.71.0
26.027.0
Auto7.5
Teleop10.7
End8.5