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Red225
333955.9
169085.6
565420.7
Blue168
338830.8
817535.3
433848.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18011550150200250300350225168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.61.5
82.884.4
Auto23.0
Teleop34.4
End28.1
red by 36.6
4338
#14
48.91.0
47.648.7
Auto16.9
Teleop9.0
End23.0
Second
55.91.7
52.954.6
Auto20.3
Teleop14.6
End21.1
red by 20.6
35.31.0
34.135.1
Auto13.9
Teleop8.7
End12.7
Third
5654
#23
20.71.7
17.619.3
Auto12.2
Teleop2.6
End5.9
blue by 10.1
3388
#16
30.81.0
29.530.6
Auto13.1
Teleop4.1
End13.6