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Red150
291235.2
61126.7
379332.7
Blue112
823021.7
451425.9
584117.8
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10467050150200150112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2912
#16
35.21.0
33.234.2
Auto10.8
Teleop9.1
End15.3
red by 9.3
4514
#10
25.90.7
25.526.2
Auto13.7
Teleop0.3
End11.9
Second
3793
#14
32.71.0
30.731.7
Auto12.0
Teleop4.4
End16.3
red by 11.0
8230
#27
21.70.7
21.422.1
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End10.5
Third
611
#11
26.71.0
24.725.7
Auto6.6
Teleop0.2
End19.9
red by 8.9
5841
#28
17.80.8
17.418.2
Auto8.4
Teleop3.3
End6.1