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Red163
261136.5
567657.0
520535.9
Blue113
658040.9
553051.3
827520.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15612150100200250163113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.00.5
59.059.5
Auto15.3
Teleop12.9
End28.8
red by 5.7
5530
#10
51.30.0
51.351.3
Auto15.7
Teleop12.2
End23.4
Second
36.50.5
38.639.0
Auto9.3
Teleop8.4
End18.8
blue by 4.4
6580
#21
40.90.0
40.840.9
Auto15.9
Teleop13.7
End11.3
Third
5205
#23
35.90.5
38.038.5
Auto15.9
Teleop13.0
End7.0
red by 15.2
8275
#15
20.70.0
20.720.7
Auto6.3
Teleop4.3
End10.1