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Red136
504637.2
516652.2
566229.2
Blue132
728935.5
522436.3
551735.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12811650100150200136132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.20.2
50.450.5
Auto16.0
Teleop14.5
End21.7
red by 15.9
36.30.6
35.736.3
Auto8.9
Teleop6.3
End21.1
Second
5046
#10
37.20.2
35.435.6
Auto10.9
Teleop12.0
End14.4
red by 1.7
35.50.6
34.935.5
Auto7.7
Teleop4.1
End23.6
Third
5662
#37
29.20.2
27.427.6
Auto12.3
Teleop1.6
End15.3
blue by 5.9
5517
#20
35.20.6
34.635.2
Auto13.3
Teleop1.9
End20.0