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Red148
362045.2
205439.7
423739.9
Blue138
432539.3
511034.4
261933.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12911650100150200250148138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.20.8
41.842.6
Auto11.7
Teleop11.7
End21.9
red by 5.9
39.30.7
38.639.3
Auto11.7
Teleop5.8
End21.8
Second
4237
#21
39.90.8
36.136.9
Auto17.1
Teleop7.4
End15.4
red by 5.4
34.40.7
33.734.4
Auto9.3
Teleop6.2
End19.0
Third
39.70.8
35.936.8
Auto13.5
Teleop11.0
End15.2
red by 6.1
2619
#28
33.60.7
32.933.6
Auto14.7
Teleop4.2
End14.7