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Red154
592751.4
22661.4
658817.8
Blue106
400337.5
295936.9
515227.1
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139110050200250300154106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#2
61.40.8
58.158.9
Auto12.7
Teleop17.8
End30.9
red by 23.9
4003
#26
37.50.3
37.837.5
Auto13.7
Teleop14.8
End9.0
Second
5927
#12
51.40.7
48.449.1
Auto11.1
Teleop19.8
End20.5
red by 14.5
2959
#10
36.90.3
37.236.9
Auto13.2
Teleop15.0
End8.7
Third
6588
#20
17.80.8
14.515.3
Auto3.9
Teleop0.7
End13.3
blue by 9.3
5152
#24
27.10.3
27.427.1
Auto6.9
Teleop3.6
End16.6