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Red199
205268.5
249158.6
418243.1
Blue134
543443.4
17139.3
369132.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19112150100150250300199134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.51.1
66.067.1
Auto19.3
Teleop20.9
End28.2
red by 25.1
5434
#32
43.40.5
43.944.4
Auto15.5
Teleop10.3
End17.6
Second
58.61.1
56.157.2
Auto17.5
Teleop16.2
End24.8
red by 19.3
171
#11
39.30.5
39.840.3
Auto11.2
Teleop9.5
End18.6
Third
4182
#16
43.11.1
40.641.7
Auto7.5
Teleop11.5
End24.1
red by 10.4
3691
#48
32.70.5
33.333.8
Auto7.8
Teleop4.6
End20.4