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Red195
452264.5
198673.9
235725.3
Blue172
52550.4
328450.9
514125.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19112550100150250300195172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.90.7
73.874.5
Auto21.1
Teleop23.0
End29.8
red by 22.9
50.90.8
48.849.6
Auto16.2
Teleop13.9
End20.9
Second
64.50.7
64.465.1
Auto21.6
Teleop22.2
End20.7
red by 14.1
525
#7
50.40.8
48.349.1
Auto14.1
Teleop13.7
End22.6
Third
2357
#34
25.30.7
25.225.9
Auto9.8
Teleop5.4
End10.1
red by 0.1
5141
#31
25.20.8
23.023.9
Auto11.5
Teleop6.4
End7.3