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Red230
517283.7
329360.2
419834.9
Blue254
87663.2
161976.2
459349.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions194207100150250300350230254

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5172
#12
83.71.6
82.584.1
Auto26.9
Teleop35.3
End21.6
red by 7.5
76.21.4
74.575.9
Auto26.6
Teleop25.3
End24.3
Second
60.21.6
59.060.7
Auto15.9
Teleop20.8
End23.6
blue by 2.9
876
#9
63.21.4
61.562.9
Auto17.2
Teleop15.1
End30.8
Third
4198
#35
34.91.6
33.735.3
Auto11.2
Teleop8.8
End14.9
blue by 14.9
4593
#29
49.81.5
48.049.5
Auto16.8
Teleop8.9
End24.1