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Red183
50152.4
490950.3
782223.0
Blue101
359744.9
105824.0
616120.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12894050150200250183101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
501
#6
52.41.3
47.548.7
Auto17.8
Teleop14.8
End19.8
red by 7.4
3597
#15
44.90.3
44.644.9
Auto16.3
Teleop9.5
End19.1
Second
50.31.3
45.446.6
Auto12.6
Teleop12.8
End24.9
red by 26.3
24.00.3
23.824.0
Auto10.7
Teleop6.0
End7.3
Third
7822
#30
23.01.3
18.119.4
Auto11.0
Teleop3.7
End8.4
red by 2.4
6161
#29
20.60.3
20.320.6
Auto4.9
Teleop3.2
End12.5