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Red115
540953.5
490333.3
745625.2
Blue145
78131.9
401533.2
137421.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13474050100150200115145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.50.3
53.853.5
Auto18.9
Teleop13.4
End21.1
red by 20.3
33.20.9
29.029.9
Auto13.2
Teleop6.9
End13.1
Second
33.30.3
33.633.3
Auto13.4
Teleop3.3
End16.6
red by 1.4
781
#17
31.90.9
27.728.6
Auto10.4
Teleop5.7
End15.7
Third
7456
#22
25.20.3
25.425.2
Auto10.6
Teleop6.4
End8.2
red by 3.7
1374
#24
21.40.9
17.218.1
Auto10.3
Teleop-0.4
End11.5