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Red173
451954.3
502453.8
503219.5
Blue179
111446.6
368360.6
240523.4
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13914350100200250300173179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.30.7
53.654.3
Auto18.6
Teleop13.8
End21.9
blue by 6.3
60.61.0
59.660.6
Auto12.5
Teleop28.0
End20.1
Second
53.80.7
53.053.8
Auto16.6
Teleop10.8
End26.4
red by 7.1
1114
#10
46.61.0
45.646.6
Auto22.7
Teleop12.9
End11.0
Third
5032
#22
19.50.7
18.719.5
Auto6.6
Teleop4.5
End8.4
blue by 3.9
2405
#25
23.41.0
22.423.4
Auto7.9
Teleop4.9
End10.6