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Red153
451954.3
502453.8
503219.5
Blue103
755849.1
128543.6
238625.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13813250100200250153103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.30.3
52.953.2
Auto18.6
Teleop13.8
End21.9
red by 5.2
49.10.4
49.449.1
Auto13.3
Teleop15.5
End20.3
Second
53.80.3
52.352.7
Auto16.6
Teleop10.8
End26.4
red by 10.2
43.60.4
43.943.6
Auto14.4
Teleop18.9
End10.3
Third
5032
#22
19.50.3
18.018.4
Auto6.6
Teleop4.5
End8.4
blue by 6.0
2386
#23
25.50.4
25.925.5
Auto9.4
Teleop6.4
End9.6