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Red151
698937.6
729636.6
753622.3
Blue99
606448.8
775837.4
645918.0
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11112105015020025030035015199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.60.7
39.340.0
Auto13.7
Teleop12.5
End11.5
blue by 11.1
48.81.0
49.848.8
Auto14.4
Teleop5.2
End29.2
Second
36.60.5
37.838.2
Auto6.7
Teleop4.1
End25.9
blue by 0.8
37.41.0
38.537.4
Auto14.2
Teleop3.4
End19.8
Third
7536
#28
22.30.7
23.624.2
Auto9.0
Teleop6.2
End7.1
red by 4.3
6459
#19
18.01.0
19.118.0
Auto6.6
Teleop6.7
End4.8