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Red214
291073.8
491171.8
607612.8
Blue121
366356.5
408949.8
41044.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182114050150200250300350400214121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.81.3
72.573.8
Auto21.9
Teleop31.9
End19.9
red by 17.3
56.50.2
56.256.5
Auto14.3
Teleop22.3
End19.9
Second
71.81.3
70.571.8
Auto13.3
Teleop35.2
End23.3
red by 22.0
49.80.2
49.649.8
Auto12.6
Teleop10.7
End26.6
Third
6076
#20
12.81.3
11.512.8
Auto6.1
Teleop5.2
End1.4
red by 7.9
4104
#22
4.90.2
4.74.9
Auto0.7
Teleop1.2
End3.0