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Red193
716321.5
313232.9
598533.9
Blue111
657928.9
699623.0
556419.4
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10276050150200250193111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.90.0
33.933.9
Auto11.4
Teleop8.4
End14.1
red by 5.0
28.90.0
28.928.9
Auto9.7
Teleop7.1
End12.0
Second
32.90.0
32.932.9
Auto11.1
Teleop8.1
End13.7
red by 9.9
23.00.0
23.023.0
Auto7.8
Teleop5.7
End9.6
Third
7163
#12
21.50.0
21.521.5
Auto7.2
Teleop5.3
End8.9
red by 2.1
19.40.0
19.419.4
Auto6.5
Teleop4.8
End8.1