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Red180
168442.9
413061.4
999915.5
Blue134
584328.7
83325.4
516652.2
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141890200300400180134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.40.0
61.461.4
Auto19.3
Teleop17.7
End24.4
red by 9.2
52.20.0
52.252.2
Auto16.0
Teleop14.5
End21.7
Second
42.90.0
42.942.9
Auto13.6
Teleop14.6
End14.7
red by 14.3
5843
#15
28.70.0
28.728.7
Auto15.2
Teleop7.3
End6.2
Third
9999
#11
15.50.0
15.515.5
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End6.5
red by 10.1
5.40.0
5.45.4
Auto3.1
Teleop-1.1
End3.4