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Red146
260751.6
259040.2
162628.9
Blue140
457518.8
540133.1
811718.2
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14568050100200250300350146140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2607
Unranked
51.60.0
51.651.6
Auto17.2
Teleop15.5
End18.9
red by 18.5
5401
Unranked
33.10.0
33.133.1
Auto11.2
Teleop8.2
End13.8
Second
2590
Unranked
40.20.0
40.240.2
Auto12.3
Teleop5.0
End22.9
red by 21.4
4575
Unranked
18.80.0
18.818.8
Auto5.5
Teleop3.0
End10.4
Third
1626
Unranked
28.90.0
28.928.9
Auto9.8
Teleop7.2
End12.0
red by 10.7
8117
Unranked
18.20.0
18.218.2
Auto6.1
Teleop4.5
End7.6