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Red128
216850.2
318212.6
740754.7
Blue117
13147.5
346739.6
242315.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125105050150200250300128117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.70.2
53.854.0
Auto16.1
Teleop25.6
End13.1
red by 7.2
131
#4
47.50.3
44.745.1
Auto14.9
Teleop23.1
End9.6
Second
50.20.2
49.249.4
Auto10.4
Teleop27.9
End12.0
red by 10.6
39.60.3
42.142.4
Auto9.1
Teleop19.6
End10.9
Third
3182
#45
12.60.2
11.711.9
Auto4.7
Teleop2.5
End5.4
blue by 2.9
2423
#59
15.60.3
14.615.0
Auto4.7
Teleop6.0
End4.9