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Red40
116019.9
59717.2
744713.4
Blue71
325528.3
29422.9
512422.0
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions579301504071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1160
#11
19.91.5
21.119.7
Auto8.6
Teleop7.3
End4.0
blue by 8.4
3255
#16
28.30.8
32.531.7
Auto8.9
Teleop14.6
End4.8
Second
597
#25
17.21.5
23.221.7
Auto4.2
Teleop9.9
End3.1
blue by 5.6
294
#40
22.90.8
25.724.9
Auto8.3
Teleop15.3
End-0.7
Third
7447
#30
13.41.5
14.012.5
Auto4.3
Teleop7.5
End1.6
blue by 8.5
22.00.8
24.623.9
Auto7.7
Teleop7.7
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
44%Cargo oddsMissed31%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
31%Hangar oddsMissed55%Hangar oddsMissed