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Red50
6689.9
74139.1
135125.1
Blue36
214414.7
409113.9
196717.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions474530405060705036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1351
#19
25.10.5
24.324.8
Auto10.8
Teleop9.9
End4.4
red by 7.2
1967
#23
17.90.5
16.716.2
Auto6.1
Teleop7.5
End4.3
Second
668
#40
9.90.5
10.310.8
Auto2.6
Teleop5.8
End1.4
blue by 4.8
2144
#47
14.70.8
12.912.0
Auto5.0
Teleop7.6
End2.1
Third
7413
#25
9.10.5
8.18.6
Auto1.5
Teleop3.0
End4.6
blue by 4.8
4091
#39
13.90.8
13.813.0
Auto1.6
Teleop6.3
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
29%Cargo oddsMissed31%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
22%Hangar oddsMissed33%Hangar oddsMissed