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Red50
29983.2
219921.7
17198.9
Blue15
62312.7
82308.9
81971.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3820010305060705015

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.70.1
17.217.3
Auto5.2
Teleop6.0
End10.5
red by 8.9
623
#4
12.70.6
13.713.0
Auto2.3
Teleop3.7
End6.8
Second
1719
#13
8.90.1
6.76.8
Auto3.0
Teleop3.5
End2.4
Level
8230
#11
8.90.6
8.47.7
Auto2.0
Teleop4.0
End2.9
Third
2998
#19
3.20.1
9.39.3
Auto1.3
Teleop2.3
End-0.4
red by 1.5
8197
#16
1.70.6
-1.2-1.9
Auto1.3
Teleop1.5
End-1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
9%Cargo oddsMissed8%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
31%Hangar oddsMissed25%Hangar oddsMissed