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Red32
81971.7
219921.7
253411.3
Blue28
172713.8
21866.2
11239.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3233262830343638403228

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.70.2
17.317.5
Auto5.2
Teleop6.0
End10.5
red by 7.8
13.80.3
15.315.0
Auto4.1
Teleop8.9
End0.9
Second
11.30.2
15.015.2
Auto3.2
Teleop4.3
End3.8
red by 1.6
1123
#12
9.70.3
10.29.9
Auto2.7
Teleop3.8
End3.1
Third
8197
#16
1.70.2
-1.9-1.7
Auto1.3
Teleop1.5
End-1.2
blue by 4.5
2186
#18
6.20.3
5.14.8
Auto1.5
Teleop2.1
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
11%Cargo oddsMissed11%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
18%Hangar oddsMissed20%Hangar oddsMissed