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Red44
511512.9
141815.5
253710.3
Blue80
173116.7
424214.2
46388.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions41412030506070804480

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
15.50.2
15.415.5
Auto5.9
Teleop3.2
End6.3
blue by 1.2
16.71.1
16.217.4
Auto6.6
Teleop6.0
End4.0
Second
12.90.2
12.813.0
Auto3.5
Teleop5.9
End3.5
blue by 1.3
14.20.9
14.014.9
Auto5.0
Teleop2.3
End6.9
Third
10.30.2
10.210.3
Auto3.4
Teleop4.5
End2.3
red by 1.5
4638
#14
8.71.1
8.59.6
Auto3.7
Teleop4.4
End0.6