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Red106
141430.0
691937.2
747016.3
Blue119
418836.5
126133.5
808018.4
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8693204060120140160106119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.20.5
36.737.2
Auto11.4
Teleop17.6
End8.1
red by 0.7
36.50.7
36.036.7
Auto14.0
Teleop16.8
End5.7
Second
30.00.5
29.430.0
Auto7.0
Teleop14.8
End8.2
blue by 3.5
33.50.7
32.933.7
Auto9.2
Teleop17.8
End6.5
Third
7470
#27
16.30.5
15.716.3
Auto4.7
Teleop4.1
End7.5
blue by 2.1
8080
#22
18.40.7
17.918.6
Auto5.7
Teleop3.5
End9.1