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Red125
353846.3
59729.0
133949.0
Blue120
492633.7
347844.4
857524.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14010450150200125120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.00.4
48.748.3
Auto13.5
Teleop23.8
End11.6
red by 4.6
44.40.9
41.842.7
Auto10.4
Teleop28.7
End5.3
Second
3538
#39
46.30.4
50.750.3
Auto10.3
Teleop29.5
End6.6
red by 12.6
4926
#30
33.70.9
36.537.4
Auto8.6
Teleop15.6
End9.5
Third
597
#59
29.00.4
27.126.8
Auto8.6
Teleop14.8
End5.6
red by 4.9
8575
#48
24.10.9
23.724.7
Auto6.8
Teleop13.6
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
99%Cargo oddsEarned92%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
89%Hangar oddsEarned73%Hangar oddsMissed