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Red50
235819.5
42416.7
761914.3
Blue40
665112.3
270411.4
784814.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423101020506070805040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2358
#16
19.51.3
18.820.1
Auto3.0
Teleop7.1
End9.4
red by 5.5
7848
#25
14.11.1
10.711.8
Auto3.7
Teleop6.9
End3.5
Second
7619
#21
14.31.3
9.310.6
Auto4.9
Teleop5.8
End3.6
red by 2.0
6651
#31
12.31.1
9.810.8
Auto4.8
Teleop6.3
End1.3
Third
4241
#34
6.71.3
10.211.5
Auto2.4
Teleop0.8
End3.6
blue by 4.7
2704
#28
11.41.1
9.810.9
Auto3.5
Teleop2.3
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
11%Cargo oddsMissed7%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
36%Hangar oddsEarned24%Hangar oddsMissed