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Red54
22127.1
458616.1
784522.5
Blue35
56358.9
383513.7
817513.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions38250102030506070805435

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.52.3
12.915.2
Auto5.9
Teleop6.0
End10.7
red by 8.8
3835
#12
13.70.2
7.16.9
Auto6.1
Teleop4.6
End3.0
Second
16.12.3
14.516.8
Auto4.9
Teleop3.8
End7.5
red by 2.8
13.30.2
13.012.7
Auto3.6
Teleop4.8
End4.8
Third
2212
#23
7.12.3
6.28.4
Auto3.3
Teleop3.6
End0.2
blue by 1.8
5635
#18
8.90.2
5.04.8
Auto2.0
Teleop1.5
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
13%Cargo oddsEarned13%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
40%Hangar oddsMissed23%Hangar oddsMissed