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Red50
65295.2
176111.3
573523.0
Blue71
6920.4
490926.9
431117.1
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions40552060801005071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5735
#10
23.00.4
22.522.9
Auto6.3
Teleop10.3
End6.5
blue by 3.9
26.91.1
21.222.3
Auto7.2
Teleop12.6
End7.1
Second
1761
#22
11.30.4
11.111.5
Auto4.9
Teleop3.6
End2.7
blue by 9.2
69
#9
20.41.9
17.219.1
Auto4.1
Teleop6.9
End9.5
Third
6529
#32
5.20.4
6.36.7
Auto2.4
Teleop1.3
End1.6
blue by 11.9
17.11.1
11.612.8
Auto5.6
Teleop7.7
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
17%Cargo oddsMissed29%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
21%Hangar oddsMissed49%Hangar oddsEarned