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Red55
31920.9
59627.8
271318.8
Blue92
17515.7
47617.7
490531.1
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5046203040607080905592

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
319
#14
20.90.8
21.822.6
Auto5.1
Teleop8.7
End7.1
blue by 10.2
31.14.3
29.033.2
Auto8.6
Teleop13.9
End8.6
Second
18.80.5
16.517.1
Auto5.0
Teleop9.7
End4.2
red by 3.1
175
#16
15.74.3
10.014.2
Auto3.7
Teleop7.6
End4.4
Third
5962
#37
7.80.9
8.49.3
Auto3.9
Teleop2.5
End1.4
red by 0.1
4761
#21
7.73.0
4.87.8
Auto1.9
Teleop1.0
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
36%Cargo oddsEarned28%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
46%Hangar oddsMissed37%Hangar oddsEarned