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Red40
24520.1
132216.6
150633.1
Blue107
571232.1
353928.3
30232.4
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7110105015040107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1506
#12
33.10.7
33.833.1
Auto9.5
Teleop19.5
End4.1
red by 0.7
302
#3
32.40.4
31.732.1
Auto8.5
Teleop17.3
End6.6
Second
245
#26
20.10.7
20.319.6
Auto6.5
Teleop4.2
End9.4
blue by 12.0
32.10.4
31.531.8
Auto6.7
Teleop15.8
End9.7
Third
16.60.7
16.716.1
Auto3.9
Teleop3.9
End8.8
blue by 11.7
3539
#17
28.30.4
27.627.9
Auto10.4
Teleop14.0
End3.9