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Red103
439241.1
365531.5
86231.4
Blue113
171843.7
205434.7
261134.3
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10912350100150200103113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4392
#14
41.10.0
41.241.1
Auto9.4
Teleop21.2
End10.6
blue by 2.5
43.70.2
44.043.8
Auto12.0
Teleop22.4
End9.4
Second
3655
#11
31.50.0
31.531.5
Auto6.4
Teleop14.7
End10.4
blue by 3.2
34.70.2
35.034.8
Auto10.1
Teleop15.5
End9.1
Third
862
#22
31.40.0
31.431.4
Auto6.6
Teleop19.3
End5.6
blue by 2.9
2611
#12
34.30.2
34.734.5
Auto10.0
Teleop13.7
End10.6