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Red68
364133.6
357227.2
571237.3
Blue70
717834.8
872821.2
341434.7
94%Model gave it6%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103734060801201406870

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5712
#13
37.31.7
33.531.8
Auto8.6
Teleop17.9
End10.8
red by 2.5
7178
#17
34.80.4
27.326.9
Auto7.4
Teleop13.6
End13.8
Second
3641
#30
33.61.7
33.832.1
Auto11.2
Teleop15.3
End7.2
blue by 1.1
34.70.4
29.028.6
Auto9.6
Teleop19.2
End5.9
Third
3572
#38
27.21.7
25.623.9
Auto9.7
Teleop8.1
End9.5
red by 6.0
8728
#19
21.20.4
15.715.3
Auto6.1
Teleop9.8
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
70%Cargo oddsMissed71%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
97%Hangar oddsEarned49%Hangar oddsMissed