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Red50
722620.2
207529.5
515215.7
Blue39
360320.7
608117.2
78187.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions373102060801005039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.51.8
13.114.9
Auto12.0
Teleop15.5
End2.0
red by 8.8
20.71.0
10.511.5
Auto5.4
Teleop11.0
End4.3
Second
7226
#15
20.21.8
9.711.5
Auto5.7
Teleop12.6
End1.9
red by 3.0
17.21.0
11.212.2
Auto4.4
Teleop8.6
End4.2
Third
15.71.8
11.313.0
Auto4.2
Teleop2.3
End9.2
red by 8.2
7818
#31
7.51.0
8.19.2
Auto1.6
Teleop2.1
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
14%Cargo oddsMissed13%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
27%Hangar oddsMissed24%Hangar oddsMissed