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Red1
207529.5
335737.8
61228.6
Blue0
515215.7
705420.4
542411.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions914902040608010012010

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.81.8
39.337.5
Auto9.2
Teleop18.3
End10.3
red by 17.4
20.41.1
21.520.4
Auto6.7
Teleop14.3
End-0.6
Second
29.51.8
31.029.2
Auto12.0
Teleop15.5
End2.0
red by 13.8
15.71.1
16.915.7
Auto4.2
Teleop2.3
End9.2
Third
6122
#25
8.61.8
10.18.3
Auto1.8
Teleop6.4
End0.4
blue by 3.1
5424
#20
11.71.1
12.811.7
Auto4.0
Teleop2.2
End5.5