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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions342301020304050605426

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5660
#15
18.42.6
11.414.0
Auto6.4
Teleop8.1
End3.9
red by 8.4
6631
#22
10.01.0
9.38.3
Auto3.6
Teleop1.7
End4.8
Second
5603
#12
15.62.6
13.916.5
Auto5.6
Teleop7.6
End2.4
red by 7.9
1504
#29
7.71.0
6.65.6
Auto5.3
Teleop0.3
End2.1
Third
6102
#17
8.42.6
5.27.8
Auto2.5
Teleop4.4
End1.5
red by 2.5
5509
#28
5.91.0
7.16.1
Auto1.8
Teleop2.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
7%Cargo oddsEarned6%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
23%Hangar oddsMissed14%Hangar oddsMissed