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Red112
205244.5
363040.7
472830.2
Blue136
460735.9
517248.4
181624.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125113406080100140160180112136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.50.1
44.544.5
Auto10.2
Teleop23.6
End10.6
blue by 3.9
48.40.5
47.948.4
Auto12.3
Teleop29.8
End6.3
Second
40.70.1
40.840.7
Auto9.0
Teleop23.2
End8.5
red by 4.8
4607
#10
35.90.5
35.435.9
Auto10.6
Teleop16.5
End8.8
Third
4728
#15
30.20.1
30.330.2
Auto7.2
Teleop11.8
End11.3
red by 5.6
1816
#29
24.60.5
24.224.6
Auto7.0
Teleop7.7
End9.9