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Red113
589551.6
259042.4
140326.7
Blue82
139129.9
331429.0
83427.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13692608010012016018020011382

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.6
52.652.0
Auto16.3
Teleop27.1
End8.2
red by 21.7
1391
#12
29.91.2
32.631.5
Auto10.9
Teleop8.8
End10.3
Second
42.40.6
43.542.9
Auto10.9
Teleop20.1
End11.3
red by 13.3
3314
#26
29.01.2
28.827.6
Auto7.4
Teleop10.6
End11.0
Third
1403
#15
26.70.6
25.925.3
Auto7.5
Teleop9.8
End9.5
blue by 1.2
834
#47
27.91.2
30.329.1
Auto7.6
Teleop12.8
End7.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
97%Cargo oddsEarned86%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
96%Hangar oddsEarned89%Hangar oddsEarned